The world’s attention is on Ukraine and Russia, but the deadliest war is in Ethiopia

Opinion by Bobby Ghosh via Bloomberg

Researchers from Ghent University in Belgium believe that 50,000-100,000 people died as a result of conflict, 150,000-200,000 through malnutrition, and more than 100,000 from a lack of medical care.

 

Abiy Ahmed's appeal for moderation and diplomacy to halt the crisis in Ukraine, coming from a Nobel Peace Prize recipient, may have gotten more attention if the Ethiopian prime minister hadn't tarnished his laurels with the blood of his own people. Reports of his army and their Eritrean allies committing heinous war crimes against people in the rebel northern region of Tigray make a mockery of his calls for nonviolence throughout the world.

 

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has drawn public attention away from other crises, such as those in Yemen, Mozambique, and Africa's Sahel area, which lies just south of the Sahara. Ethiopia, Africa's second-most populated country, is in the 16th month of a deadly civil war.

 

Although combat between Abiy's forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front appears to have come to a halt, human-rights organizations and international organizations have denounced crimes committed by both sides.

 

Civilians in the northern province are caught in the middle, facing a disaster that has been compared to the horrors of Africa's — and Ethiopia's — past: mass famine and ethnocide. The Tigray area, according to World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, is "nowhere on earth placethe health of millions of people is more under jeopardy"

 

Abiy's administration, which had hailed Tedros' appointment as the head of the WHO as a source of national pride, is now attempting to smear him since his family hails from Tigray. Apart from anecdotal evidence, Tedros' contention that the province is on the verge of a huge humanitarian calamity is backed up by a growing body of data.

 

Though the real toll of the conflict is hard to measure, academics from Ghent University in Belgium believe that up to half a million people have perished so far: 50,000 to 100,000 through combat, 150,000 to 200,000 from malnutrition, and more than 100,000 from a lack of medical care. The United States' Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has raised alarm over ethnic cleansing in Tigray, but Addis Ababa's leadership has denied this as "spurious."

 

The Tigrayan forces (TDF) have been accused of atrocities against various ethnic groups, including murder and rape. However, Abiy's forces are accused for the majority of civilian deaths, particularly those caused by malnutrition and neglect. Humanitarian organizations claim that government soldiers are blocking food and medication from reaching Tigray.

 

They are also no slouches when it comes to other types of atrocities, like as the recent immolation of a Tigrayan man, which was put on Abiy's soldiers by the government-affiliated human rights committee.

 

As the conflict drags on, such atrocities are sure to increase and escalate. Late last year, government forces were able to stave off a rebel assault on the capital and reclaim villages along the Tigray border. The use of military drones, reportedly supplied by Turkey, aided in the change of events. (Turkish drones have also assisted Ukrainian soldiers in slowing Russian progress.)

 

While Abiy's ground forces appear to have refrained from attacking Tigray, where the mountainous terrain has historically shown to be a significant rebel advantage, he has no issues authorizing bombings that have resulted in significant civilian fatalities.

 

According to Michelle Bachelet, the president of the United Nations Human Rights Commission, hundreds of people have died as a result of aircraft operations "probably carried out by the Ethiopian Air Force." This has been refuted by the administration.

 

Both Abiy and the TPLF leadership have stated that they are eager to discuss a cease-fire, but neither side has shown much flexibility in their demands. The prime minister wants the rebels to disarm and accept Addis Ababa's administration, while the TPLF demands more autonomy for Tigray and accountability for Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers' abuses.

 

Without additional outside pressure, there is little chance of movement toward reconciliation and peace. However, with the world's attention focused on Ukraine and Russia, both sides in Ethiopia's civil war are likely to utilize the stalemate to prepare for fresh violence.

 

Who is going to be able to stop this from happening? Attempts at mediation by the African Union have been utterly futile. Since restricting some fiscal aid to Ethiopia early last year, the European Union has done nothing. The United States has already made significant efforts: President Joe Biden has talked personally with Abiy, his Horn of Africa ambassador has visited Addis Ababa, and his administration has ended preferential access for Ethiopian exports to the United States.

 

Sanctions against the TPLF leadership and high government personnel, including Abiy himself, are the only option that has yet to be explored. With Tigray on the verge of a humanitarian disaster, Biden needs to make it clear that this option is at least on the table.