After more than two years of being subjected to Russian military aggression, Ukraine is on the offensive. On Tuesday morning, at least 300 Ukrainian forces crossed the Russian border into Kursk. After attacking border patrols in Nikolayevo-Darina and Oleshnya, Ukrainian forces swiftly occupied 350 square kilometers of Russian territory and took dozens of Russians as POWs.
There is no indication
that Ukraine's offensive operations in Kursk will stop. According to reports,
Ukrainian forces overran Sudzhna, made it to Korenevo's outskirts, and moved
north to Malaya Loknya during the course of the night. Ukraine has taken more
territory in less than 48 hours than it did throughout the disastrous summer
2023 counteroffensive.
Respecting operational
confidentiality procedures, the General Staff of Ukraine has refrained from
commenting on the Kursk incursion. It is quite evident that the Kursk offensive
achieves three important Ukrainian goals, notwithstanding Kyiv's radio silence.
First, removing Russian
forces from Donetsk's offensive operations. Yevgenivka, Niu-York, and Progres
have all been taken over by Russian soldiers in the last week. Russia's
objective of establishing control of the elevated terrain and logistical
facilities of Toretsk includes these gains. Despite the fact that Ukraine
contests Russia's assertion that it has taken Niu-York, Zelensky recently
acknowledged that "it's difficult all along the Eastern Front." Given
the slim chance of significant progress in Kharkiv, Russia may decide in the
next weeks to send additional conscripts to Donetsk. This approach is
complicated by the Kursk offensive by Ukraine.
The second is causing
strife inside Russia. Pro-Ukrainian Russian partisans have occasionally
trespassed into Russian territory since Russia regained a slight offensive
momentum in early 2023. In May and June 2023, the Russian Volunteer Corps and
Freedom of Russian Legion briefly occupied several border settlements in
Belgorod.
These cross-border
operations extended to Kursk in March 2024. Much like the Kremlin UAV episode,
these raids aimed to smash Russia’s increasingly fragile sense of security and
show the Russian public that the war can come to them.
The ongoing operation
by Ukraine in Kursk continues where these failed raids left off. Despite the
Russian Defense Ministry's immediate claim to be eliminating the 300 terrorists
from Ukraine who had infiltrated into Kursk, President Vladimir Putin was
compelled to convene a Security Council meeting and denounce Ukraine's
"major provocation" in public.
The Ministry of Defense
has called for calm, but Russian pro-war Telegram channels have shown their
dissatisfaction with the sluggish deployment of troops to Kursk and have
highlighted the seriousness of the situation. The Kremlin has been humiliated
after showing itself off for days as the beneficiary of the prisoner exchange
arrangement.
The third is to advance
a land swap deal during future talks. The Discord Leaks revealed that Zelensky
pondered the occupation of Russian villages as a means of getting leverage over
Moscow. Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak stated that Ukraine launched its
Kursk offensive to bolster its future bargaining position. A Kharkiv-for-Kursk
land swap is being mooted. While it is unclear whether Ukraine can hold
villages in Kursk, the offensive has shown that breaching Russian territory is
easier than destroying Russia’s fortifications in eastern Ukraine.
Despite their initial
momentum, Ukraine’s advances in Kursk are likely to be short-lived. Western and
domestic pressure will likely force Kyiv to change tack. The US is apparently
mystified by Kyiv’s actions and European gas prices have risen to 2024 highs
over Ukraine’s seizure of Sudzha gas export hub. Domestic criticisms of the
diversion of precious manpower away from the core frontlines and civilian costs
could convince Kyiv to stand down. The threat of more intensified Russian
strikes on Sumy, which is adjacent to Kursk, forced 6,000 people to evacuate.
But the Kursk offensive
demonstrates that Russia has not learned from the Wagner Group's rapid takeover
of Rostov in June 2023 of its revolt. Apart from the usual threats of employing
tactical nuclear weapons and destroying Ukraine, Russia has not really
retaliated against the Kursk offensive. Putin has many reasons to be concerned,
especially since F-16 jets are now being sent to the front lines.
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