Ukraine’s surprise attack in Kursk has humiliated the Russian army

 

After more than two years of being subjected to Russian military aggression, Ukraine is on the offensive. On Tuesday morning, at least 300 Ukrainian forces crossed the Russian border into Kursk. After attacking border patrols in Nikolayevo-Darina and Oleshnya, Ukrainian forces swiftly occupied 350 square kilometers of Russian territory and took dozens of Russians as POWs.

 

There is no indication that Ukraine's offensive operations in Kursk will stop. According to reports, Ukrainian forces overran Sudzhna, made it to Korenevo's outskirts, and moved north to Malaya Loknya during the course of the night. Ukraine has taken more territory in less than 48 hours than it did throughout the disastrous summer 2023 counteroffensive.

 

Respecting operational confidentiality procedures, the General Staff of Ukraine has refrained from commenting on the Kursk incursion. It is quite evident that the Kursk offensive achieves three important Ukrainian goals, notwithstanding Kyiv's radio silence.

 

First, removing Russian forces from Donetsk's offensive operations. Yevgenivka, Niu-York, and Progres have all been taken over by Russian soldiers in the last week. Russia's objective of establishing control of the elevated terrain and logistical facilities of Toretsk includes these gains. Despite the fact that Ukraine contests Russia's assertion that it has taken Niu-York, Zelensky recently acknowledged that "it's difficult all along the Eastern Front." Given the slim chance of significant progress in Kharkiv, Russia may decide in the next weeks to send additional conscripts to Donetsk. This approach is complicated by the Kursk offensive by Ukraine.

 

The second is causing strife inside Russia. Pro-Ukrainian Russian partisans have occasionally trespassed into Russian territory since Russia regained a slight offensive momentum in early 2023. In May and June 2023, the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russian Legion briefly occupied several border settlements in Belgorod.

 

These cross-border operations extended to Kursk in March 2024. Much like the Kremlin UAV episode, these raids aimed to smash Russia’s increasingly fragile sense of security and show the Russian public that the war can come to them.

 

The ongoing operation by Ukraine in Kursk continues where these failed raids left off. Despite the Russian Defense Ministry's immediate claim to be eliminating the 300 terrorists from Ukraine who had infiltrated into Kursk, President Vladimir Putin was compelled to convene a Security Council meeting and denounce Ukraine's "major provocation" in public.

 

The Ministry of Defense has called for calm, but Russian pro-war Telegram channels have shown their dissatisfaction with the sluggish deployment of troops to Kursk and have highlighted the seriousness of the situation. The Kremlin has been humiliated after showing itself off for days as the beneficiary of the prisoner exchange arrangement.

 

The third is to advance a land swap deal during future talks. The Discord Leaks revealed that Zelensky pondered the occupation of Russian villages as a means of getting leverage over Moscow. Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak stated that Ukraine launched its Kursk offensive to bolster its future bargaining position. A Kharkiv-for-Kursk land swap is being mooted. While it is unclear whether Ukraine can hold villages in Kursk, the offensive has shown that breaching Russian territory is easier than destroying Russia’s fortifications in eastern Ukraine.

 

Despite their initial momentum, Ukraine’s advances in Kursk are likely to be short-lived. Western and domestic pressure will likely force Kyiv to change tack. The US is apparently mystified by Kyiv’s actions and European gas prices have risen to 2024 highs over Ukraine’s seizure of Sudzha gas export hub. Domestic criticisms of the diversion of precious manpower away from the core frontlines and civilian costs could convince Kyiv to stand down. The threat of more intensified Russian strikes on Sumy, which is adjacent to Kursk, forced 6,000 people to evacuate.

 

But the Kursk offensive demonstrates that Russia has not learned from the Wagner Group's rapid takeover of Rostov in June 2023 of its revolt. Apart from the usual threats of employing tactical nuclear weapons and destroying Ukraine, Russia has not really retaliated against the Kursk offensive. Putin has many reasons to be concerned, especially since F-16 jets are now being sent to the front lines.

 

 Source: The Telegraph