President Isaias Afwerki’s determination to continue his feud with the TPLF is jeopardising stability in Ethiopia and the wider region.
On
November 3, 2020, a long-simmering political confrontation between the federal
government of Ethiopia and the Tigray regional state, governed by the Tigray
People's Liberation Front (TPLF), broke out. Early on in the conflict,
neighboring Eritrea sent troops to Tigray to support the federal
administration.
The
Ethiopian government and the TPLF came to an agreement on a "permanent
cessation of hostilities" on November 3, 2022, exactly two years later.
This agreement effectively put an end to the civil war, which by that point had
already claimed thousands of lives, uprooted millions of people, and forced
many more to the verge of starvation.
Nonetheless,
the Eritrean government continued to provoke the TPLF while refusing to remove
its forces from Tigray, where they are alleged to have violated a number of
human rights. Residents of Tigray charged that long after the ceasefire,
Eritrean forces had continued to kill, arrest, and pillage civilians. The Eritrean
government has also been charged with giving financial, military, and
logistical assistance to Amhara regional state armed organizations that are
still present in Tigray and are also claimed to be engaged in violent and
illegal operations in other regions of Ethiopia.
Eritrean
military are still in Tigray nearly six months after the cease-fire agreement,
and there are growing worries that Asmara's actions could sabotage Ethiopia's
critical peace process and plunge the nation and the surrounding area back into
conflict.
Eritrean
President Isaias Afwerki says he is determined to continue his country’s
decades-old conflict with the TPLF, which was in control of Ethiopia during
Eritrea’s 30-year independence war against the country.
He,
however, does not appear to be pursuing a prolonged conflict with the
leadership of the regional state solely to settle historical grievances.
In
an interview published by the Eritrean Ministry of Information in February,
Afwerki accused the TPLF of being mercenaries working to maintain Western
hegemony in the Horn of Africa. The Tigray war, he claimed “was not really a
TPLF agenda; but essentially the agenda of Washington”. It was a result of the
TPLF’s willingness to serve as a foot soldier in Washington’s quest to
facilitate a return to the “unipolar world order”, he argued.
He
pointed to the invasion of Ukraine as an example of the US-led struggle to
maintain a unipolar world, and claimed the US uses “proxies, such as the TPLF
clique and others, to create chaos everywhere”.
All
in all, it is obvious that Afwerki believes in Tigray his troops helped the
Ethiopian government defeat not only a rebellious regional administration but a
plot to alter the world order to the detriment of Eritrean and African
sovereignty.
This
suggests Afwerki will continue to agitate for further conflict with the TPLF
even if the group adheres to all the conditions of the agreement for the
cessation of hostilities and agrees to respect the authority of the Ethiopian
federal government.
This
perspective, which portrays the TPLF as an American puppet who is innately
opposed to regional powers, could prove damaging for all Ethiopians, Eritreans,
and Africans as well as the Tigrayan people for a number of reasons.
First
and foremost, the international community's efforts to create a lasting peace
architecture in Tigray could be harmed by the Eritrean government's insistence
on maintaining its soldiers there and support for Amhara groups, which has the
potential to ignite a new conflict in Ethiopia.
With
the numerous allegations of war crimes and violations of human rights made
against Eritrean soldiers, their continuing presence in Ethiopia could pave the
way for additional atrocities and prevent Tigrayans from rebuilding their
lives.
Furthermore,
the Eritrean government’s continued involvement in Ethiopian conflicts could
negatively affect the wellbeing of the many Eritrean refugees currently
residing in Ethiopia.
Before
the recent conflict, about 100,000 Eritrean refugees lived in camps in Tigray.
For a long time, they were safe in Ethiopia. But when the war erupted, these
refugees and other Eritrean civilians in the regional state found themselves
being targeted by all warring parties, including Eritrean forces. They have
been subjected to siege tactics, deprived of any kind of aid for long periods
of time, and fallen victim to targeted attacks. Reportedly, some were also
forcibly returned to Eritrea in violation of the principle of non-refoulement.
The Eritrean government’s refusal to leave Tigray and allow Ethiopians to
resolve the conflict between themselves means that remaining Eritrean refugees
in the regional state are still under threat.
The
Eritrean government’s continued involvement in the Tigray conflict could also
have grave consequences well beyond Ethiopia’s borders. Ethiopia is a key
player in the Horn of Africa, and its stability is crucial to maintaining peace
and security in the region. The continued involvement of the Eritrean
government in Ethiopian conflicts, and President Afwerki’s efforts to provoke
the TPLF, could exacerbate tensions and contribute to instability in the
region.
To
avoid this grim scenario, the international community should closely monitor
the situation in Tigray and take the necessary steps to ensure Afwerki’s
government is not given further opportunities to destabilise Ethiopia. This
includes pressuring the Eritrean government in every way possible to pull its
troops out of Ethiopia, holding it accountable for the atrocities it is alleged
to have committed in Tigray, and encouraging the Ethiopian federal government
to take a firm stance against Eritrea’s involvement in its domestic affairs.
In
addition, the Ethiopian authorities and the TPLF should be encouraged to build
on the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and expand its scope to include other
Ethiopian rebel groups, such as the Oromo Liberation Army, to provide
sustainable and inclusive solutions to current security, social, political and
economic challenges in Ethiopia.
After
two years of civil war, the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement put Ethiopia on
the path towards sustainable peace and long-term stability. The global
community should do everything in its power to stop the Eritrean government
from undoing this achievement.
By Samuel Zewdie Hagos via Aljazeera
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