Since November 2020, a complex and tragic civil war has raged in the
Tigray region of Ethiopia pitting Tigrayans, led by Ethiopia’s former ruling
elite, against Ethiopia’s federal government and the Eritrean military, which
has intervened in support of Addis Ababa. Fighting has already killed thousands
of combatants and civilians and displaced over 1.7 million people
Amidst reports of atrocities, indiscriminate airstrikes, regional
spillover, and dramatic battlefield reversals, the escalating conflict was
marked in its early days by long-distance attacks by advanced missile and
artillery systems imported from China. Furthermore, there have been persistent
claims of the use of armed drones which remained unverified until this summer.
While such weapons may be at the forefront of the arms race between
China, Russia, and the United States, the Tigray conflict illustrates how
affordable variants of these weapons are making their way into conflicts
involving less wealthy actors too.
The Peace Prize that Led
to War
Ethiopia is a multi-national federal republic, with Oromo and Amhara
ethnicities accounting for over half of the population. But between 1991 and
2018, Ethiopia was mostly ruled in an authoritarian fashion by ethnic
Tigrayans, who constitute around six percent of the population, in the Tigray
People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party. Many of these Tigrayans also nursed a
deep grudge against Eritrea, which seceded from Ethiopia in 1991.
In 2018, a multi-ethnic coalition finally defeated the TPLF electorally,
bringing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to power. He proceeded to end hostilities
with Eritrea for which he received the Nobel Peace Prize.
This promising development, unfortunately, heralded the war to come, as
it infuriated TPLF which Abiy increasingly sought to repress. When Abiy
canceled parliamentary elections in September 2020 allegedly due to the
coronavirus threat, the TPLF held a regional vote anyway. As Abiy sought to
assert control over the defiant region, on November 3 Tigrayans attacked army
bases in Tigray, looting many heavy weapon systems.
In response, Abiy deployed the military to crush the rebellion, assisted
by aerial bombardments, Amhara militias, and even the Eritrean military.
Ethiopian forces captured the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle by the end of
November.
But in the following months, mounting atrocities (massacres, ethniccleansing, and systematic mass rapes) especially by Amhara militias and
Eritrean troops and indiscriminate air strikes caused recruitment and
defections to the Tigrayan fighters to surge.
Finally, in a stunning reversal, in June 2021 the Tigray Defense Forces
(TDF) counterattacked, recapturing Mekelle and compelling federal troops to
withdraw from Tigray. Today a two-front war rages, with the TDF still fighting
Eritrean troops to the north while its forces advance southward down the B30
highway towards Gondar in the Amhara region.
Fighter Rockets over
Eritrea and Amhara
Most of the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s (ENDF) heavy weapons are
of Soviet/Russian and Ukrainian origin, including T-72 tanks and Su-27 and
MiG-23 jet fighters. But recent procurements have been sourced from China,
including two types of 300-millimeter heavy multiple rocket launcher systems
(MRLSs): the CALT A-200 and Norinco AR2. Both are modeled after the Russian
BM-30 Smerch system and mounted on 8×8 by trucks which are supported by an
additional reloading crane truck.
MRLSs are capable of laying down extremely lethal and widely dispersed
barrages in a short amount of time. Furthermore, larger rockets can strike
targets deeper behind the frontline. The ten-rocket A200 has a range of
seventy-five miles, while twelve-rocket AR2 (export model of the Chinese
military Type 03 system) has a range of eighty-one miles. The rockets can carry
regular high-explosive warheads or highly lethal fuel-air explosive or cluster
bomblets and also come in precision-strike variants guided by Beidou satellite
navigation.
The A200 launcher can alternately mount two M20 ballistic missiles from
China. An export model of China’s mobile DF-12 SRBM, the M20 officially boasts
a range of up to 174 miles. Like Russia’s Iskander missile system, it can
deploy countermeasures and maneuver to avoid interception by air defenses, and
a combination of satellite and inertial guidance results in an average accuracy
of thirty to fifty meters of a designated target.
At the start of hostilities in November, Tigrayan forces captured at
least two M20/A200 missile launchers and an AR2 MRL, as well as several loading
vehicles. One of the M20/A200 was apparently abandoned after getting stuck on
rocky terrain. It was recaptured late in 2020 by the ENDF and eventually
destroyed. An M20/A200 was also allegedly captured in July 2021.
On November 13, 2020, a Tigrayan M20 system launched strikes on airbases
in Gondar and the Amharan capital of Bahir Dar further to the south, 180 miles
from Mekelle. In the initial volley, a missile damaged the terminal in Gondar,
while another narrowly missed the airport in Bahir Dar. Two more strikes were
launched in November. Satellite photos show one of the missiles cratered the
concrete apron at Bahir Dar airport.
In retaliation for Eritrean intervention in the war, the TDF also struck
Eritrea’s capital of Asmara, and the city of Massawa three times in the month
of November, with salvos of four and six rockets fired Nov. 27 and 28
respectively. Various accounts suggest the weapons landed on Asmara
International airport, military facilities, and surrounding suburbs, but no
casualties were reported. Given the shorter distance—around fifty and
seventy-five miles respectively across the border—these may have involved MRLSs
instead of ballistic missiles.
Ethiopia’s Mysterious
Drone Force
Addis Ababa has extensively called upon Mi-35 helicopter gunships and
around thirty MiG-23 and Su-27 jet fighters to perform airstrikes in the
war. Several air attacks reportedly caused
heavy civilian casualties, most infamously on June 23 when a strike on market
day in Togoga reportedly killed 64 civilians and injured 184.
TDF forces did capture some radars and air defense systems, however.
Confirmed losses attributed to Igla man-portable surface-to-air missiles
include a MiG-23 jet with the pilot captured, an L-100-30 cargo plane (you can
see the shoot down here), and a Mi-35 helicopter. Additionally, at least four
V-600 missiles were launched from three larger captured S-125 systems but
missed their targets.
Drones therefore would seemingly offer a more affordable and lower-risk
form of airpower. Indeed, reports that the Ethiopian National Defense Force
(ENDF) was employing armed drones date from early in the conflict, with TDF
leadership alleging that Chinese-built drones operated by the United Arab
Emirates are flying missions on behalf of the Ethiopian government, without
confirmation.
Given Ethiopia’s relationship with China and the affordability of Chinese
combat drones, China was assumed to be the source of such weapons, with some
third-party sources claiming the EAF has large CASC CH-4B Rainbow or Wing Loong
II (‘Pterodactyl’) armed drones. However visual evidence has remained elusive.
Finally, on August 3, a series of photos posted on pro-government social
media showed Prime Minister Abiy walking on a tarmac of Semara airport with a
large combat drone (UCAV) in the background with hard points under its wings
seemingly carrying missiles. Satellite photos on August 2 revealed two drones
at the base.
Open-source investigation site Bellingcat determined the drone’s profile
appeared to be that of an Iranian Mohajer-6 UCAV. Even more suggestively,
photos showing the exterior and interior of the drones’ Ground Control Station
and video feed closely match Iranian images of the Mohajer-6’s control system.
The Mohajer-6 is the latest iteration of a drone family that first saw
combat use by Iran in the mid-1980s, and can perform surveillance missions
using a gimbaled electro-optical sensor and carry out strikes with Qaem-1
precision glide bombs. The Mohajer-6’s utility, however, would be constrained
by its reported range of 124 miles, limiting its reach over Tigray. Mekelle,
for example, is 155 miles away from Semera.
Nonetheless, the ongoing Tigray war demonstrates how combat drones and
long-range missiles and rockets are falling into the hands of more actors
across the globe, and seeing more frequent use in conflicts. Drones amount to
more deniable, risk-mitigating and cost-efficient form of airpower, while
rocket and missile artillery offers an alternate means of attacking military
and civilian targets far beyond the frontlines.
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